There is a ’strong piercing pattern’ on the weekly chart below. It is a bullish sign though candlestick patterns always require confirmation from the next unfolding pattern. However, there are also some positive divergence on momentum indicators and the trading volume was also noticable towards the close of the week.
On the daily chart below it also portrys a picture of confusion between the given two blue lines.
Charts: Quote.com
A close above 15000 would signal another primary uptrend unfolding. But it seems that in case of a failure to give a close above 15000, this index could remain within a range of these two blue lines for some more time. In other words, the risk appetite traders could go short around 15000 with 15500 as stoploss on closing basis for a target of 13500 to 13300. While on the other hand it would be riskier to initiate fresh long positions (short term) on a close below 13300. However, the long to medium term traders could keep cherry picking at their well researched counters as long as this index is trading above 12580. A close below this level would imply another primary downtrend.
ALSO PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR LONG TERM VIEW PUBLISHED EARLIER ON THE 31ST MAY 2009
This index was rising with lesser conviction since march and finally the uptrend has ended up with a head and shoulders pattern. Overall, the outlook is not very positive for the short term. Medium term is also under threat because of negative divergence in momentum indicators. A close below 7960 would confim further decline in the medium term.
Chart:Quote.com
S&P500 : The short term uptrend in this index seems to be over. Momentum oscillators are almost into the negative territory that no fresh short-term long positions would be advised in such a scenario. However, it would be too early for Medium to Long term investors to throw in the towel.
Immediate strong support for this index is around 888 area. Even a close below here would not threaten its medium term uptrend as long as 845 is holding. The decline is also happening on an insignificant volume. Moving averages are also not diverging very negatively so far. Medium to long term investors might cherry pick at thier well researched counters during this decline.
The market players are not confident about the economic conditions, fundamentally -and very rightly so. Therefore, it is more likely that it is until the forthcoming earnings season which could give some opportunity to find some green shoots because most of the economists do not consider the employment rate as the lead indicator. Manufacturing and consumer demand are the lead indicators for some of them. Watch out!
FTSE100 could not manage to surpass its resistance zone at 4520 area and has started drifting down. So far the uptrend is not threatened until its holding above 4110 -watch out! But the picture on short to long term charts is not very encouraging. Even yesterday it formed a big bearish engulfing candle, which is negative. On the monthly chart below, there is another large red candle formed in the month of June, similar to the bearish engulfing.
Momentum indicators are also intending to enter the negative zone. 50dma has been left behind at 4335 levels and currently this index is halting at 4235 -its 200dma. So, the overall scenario is negtive in the short to medium term.
As mentioned above, the level of 4110, if breached would pull the markets down towards 3600 once again.
To sum it up all, the green shoots, if any would have to be searched among the quarterly results next month. But for the time being, the signs of immediate recovery are fading off. It could take little more time.
Bombay Stock Exchange or BSE Sensex is currently struggling with lot of speculation about the economic policy of the new government. But there is no sense of any negativity, rather enthusiasm after the left has been left out. But still there are so many things the Indian economy has yet to grapple with.
Yesterday, the finance minister presented the Annual Economic Survey: the highlights of the governments plan. Click here for exhaustive story and here for a brief outline of this survey. Overall, there is enough indication of focussing on improving the GDP alongside managing the fiscal deficit. But the top priority would the rural India (Read Story).
Short to medium term has been marred by the unpredictable monsoons and fuel price hike. The inflation may be too low on the charts but the reality is that the prices on the shelf are still rising.
Technically also, this index was overdue for a correction. The horizontal red lines given on the chart at 13650 and 12500 respectively, hold the key for this correction. Both these support levels could be used by the long term investors to buy. But a breach/close below 12500 would also threaten the previous lows also. Watch out!
So far, there is every indicaion that this index is back to business once again and every decline is an opportunity for accumulating your well researched sectors/stocks for long term investing.
China stock markets are trending up consistently in a bull trend manner. It has also surpassed its 52week high though technically, it has yet to confirm if it is back into the bull mode or not. For that it would have to give a sustainable close above the horizontal red line given at 3368 levels in the chart below.
chart: quote.com
Daily and weekly momentum indicators are diverging very positively and the moving averages of 50 and 200days have been left behind far back. At the same time the prices are in overbought zone for quite some time, implying that a correction is due in this market. However the horizontal red line at the level of 2525 holds the key for the uptrend. A close below here would be an indication of end to the uptrend. But so far there is no negativity visible in short to medium term. 2700 levels also is yet another strong support for this index.
Also click here for a related story on Bloomberg.
Given below is the monthly chart of Nikkei225 for the month of June 2009. So far it has recovered only 28% from its January low of 7000. It is not a great achievement in comparison to its other asian peers.
Chart: Quote.com
Two red horizontal lines given at 8957 and 11312 respectively are the two levels to be watched by the investors. Breakout on either side of these two levels would determine the future course of trend in the weeks ahead. Until then it would be a dull market for investors.
There are some positive divergences on daily and weekly charts, implying that the uptrend may continue in short to medium term. Otherwise, holding above its 50dma (currently around 9450) would be positive. This 50dma could be used as buy/sell level.
This is just another rough sketch that one of the wave following investors could be drawing in the mind.
33 percent investment between green line and the given 50% mark on the chart (50% of the wave A to B).
Another 33 percent beyond the green line on either side. But this investor seems to be a long term one. S/he would be lucky if the markets would chart the scenario no. (2) as given below.
Remaining 33 percent investment could be made at some other opportunity at a later stage.
![3scenarios[1]](http://www.stocksharetip.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/3scenarios1.png "3scenarios[1]")
Rough quality of picture view is regretted.
(This is not a solicitation to trade accordingly -especially in the short term).
Following is the envisaged wave count for all the major stock markets. This should give a broader picture of what could happen over the Medium and Long term. (Short term trend followers may delve into more elaborate details in short term charts).
There could always be some unanswered questions while following wave patterns, but they are very useful tool for tech analysts, so as to determine the path a market or stock could take over the next few days, months or years.
![Wave count[1]](http://www.stocksharetip.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/Wave-count1.jpg "Wave count[1]")
(This is for educational purpose and not any solicitation to trade accordingly).
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